Life is not the game of chess. It’s more like the poker due to the fact that there is some dose of uncertainty, fortune. This law is a spine of this book, which addresses decision making process.
Thinking in bets, written by Annie Duke starts off, about cognitive biases. She describes our tendency to judge decisions based on how they turn out. In other words, just because something turned out poorly does not necessarily mean that we made a bad decision. Annie provides a few really accurate examples of that.
Furthermore, the book tells about our tendency to look for the patterns where they many be none, and we often misjudge outcome with the quality of a decision.
The last 1/3 of the book is more about strategies for avoiding the psychological traps and biases. At fist, we should get comfortable with uncertainty and we should learn how to resist impulses. Than she shares her system for making predictions and approaches to separate luck and skills. The book ends with useful guidelines for how to deal with biases, constructive self-criticism and rely on truth-seeking pod for feedback. Interesting, short, but sometimes a bit repetitive.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
by Annie Duke
Complexity of ideas